Democrats Maintain Lead As Republican Succumb To Infighting

Democracy Corps is reporting that leading up to 2010 Democrats continue to maintain their lead over Republicans. The polling question went as follows:

"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?
(DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE): 47 percent
Lean (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE): 5 percent
(REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE): 36 percent
Lean (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE): 2 percent

Total Democrats: 52 percent
Total Republicans: 39 percent"

This isn't altogether surprising and the fact that the Republicans are continuing to bleed votes isn't too surprising either. With the Republican party struggling to define itself and places like Florida being the primary battleground between now and 2012 it's not surprising that Republicans are having a hard time.

Florida actually ends up being a great example because the contentions within the Republican party are all reflected in the 2010 Senate primary race between Rubio and Crist. Crist is the popular Governor who hasn't really committed to a whole list of issues and tends to be socially and economically moderate, whereas Rubio is gathering up strong conservative support in the form of the religious right, endorsements by former Governor (Jeb) Bush's sons, and a general commitment to the ideas of the Republican party which brought them victory from '94 to '04.

A race like that in Florida truly is for the future of the party. Already leaders within the party, like Senator Cornyn (R-TX), are equivocating on positions, trying to judge what is the popular action to take, Cornyn, for instance, is distancing himself from Limbaugh and Gingrich while endorsing Crist. Meanwhile, it's becoming increasing clear that potential Republican Presidential contenders, like Gov. Pawlenty (R-MN), are too conservative to have any real shot at the Presidency unless Obama does fail even if they are in a strong position to gain the Republican nomination.

Meanwhile, if we look at Nate Silver's ratings of governors, specially potential contenders for the Republican nomination, it's pretty clear that, generally, the more moderate ones (Crist (R-FL) and Huntsman (R-UT)) are in a better position than the more conservative ones (Sanford (R-SC) and Palin (R-AK)) in terms of getting elected by the populace at large.

Obviously, the viability of any candidate for the Presidency, or any large office for that matter, will depend on his or her ability to appeal to the populace at large. It' one thing to be a conservative governor in a conservative state (I'm thinking South Carolina and Mississippi) but quite another to be running for President, where the best contenders seem to be those who end up being most moderate (although those aren't always the ones selected by the party (see Barry Goldwater and George McGovern, for example).

It is not surprising that in such a 'big tent' party as the Republican Party (or so it's claimed) that a wide range of conservativism will be found. Yet, in order to form a more cohesive voting block and opinion block on issues the Republican Party, like any party, will, from time to time, need to struggle through a kind of civil war to help define itself. Unfortunately for the Republicans, this time it seems as if the struggle is going to be more prolonged and more stratifying than usual (since, in the usual course of action the old guard is replaced by the new guard and little struggle is present).

I think Machiavelli stands as a good metaphor for the problem the GOP now faces:

"Upon this a question arises: whether it be better to be loved than feared or feared than loved? It may be answered that one should wish to be both, but, because it is difficult to unite them in one person, is much safer to be feared than loved, when, of the two, either must be dispensed with."

Now, it shall just be a question of waiting to see whether "love" or "fear" wins out...

Natch Greyes is a Democrat running for Senate in 2020. His campaign platform may be found at natchgreyes.com Sphere: Related Content